## BUS 132B – Supply Chain Analytics

## Assignment #5

供应链分析代写 a) Forecast demand for the next four weeks using a 4-week moving average and simple exponential smoothing with ?? = 0.1b) Create a graph ···

### 1.In Chapter 7, Exercise 2, your textbook includes the following demand for Hot Pizza: 供应链分析代写

a) Forecast demand for the next four weeks using a 4-week moving average and simple exponential smoothing with ?? = 0.1

b) Create a graph by week of actual demand, 4-week moving average and simple exponential smoothing forecasts.

c) Calculate the MAD and MSE to evaluate the forecasting methods used with this data.

d) Which of the two methods do you recommend?

2.In Chapter 7, Exercise 3, your textbook includes the following demand for flowers:

e) Forecast demand for year 5 using simple exponential smoothing with ?? = 0.1 and Holt’s method with ?? = 0.1 and ?? = 0.1

a) Create a graph by quarter of actual demand, simple exponential smoothing and Holt’s method forecasts.

### b) Calculate the MAD and MSE to evaluate the forecasting methods used with this data. 供应链分析代写

c) Which of the two methods do you recommend?

3.In Chapter 8, Exercise 1, your textbook includes the following:

“Skycell, a major European cell phone manufacturer, is making production plans for thecoming year. Skycell has worked with its customers (the service providers) to come up with forecasts of monthly requirements (in thousands of phones) as shown in Table 8-10. Manufacturing is primarily an assembly operation. And capacity is governed by the number of people on the production line.

### The plant operates for 20 days a month, eight hours each day.供应链分析代写

One person can assemble a phone every 10 minutes. Workers are paid 20 euros perhour a 50 percent premium for overtime. The plant currently employs 1,250 workers. Component costs for each cell phone total 20 euros. Given the rapid decline in component. And finished-product prices, carrying inventory from one month to the next incurs a cost of 3 euros per phone per month.

Skycell currently has a no-layoff policy in place. Overtime is limited to a maximum of 20 hours per month per employee. Assume that Skycell has a starting inventory of 50,000 units and wants to end the year with the same level of inventory.”

a) Assume that there are no backlogs, no subcontracting and no new hires. With minimizing cost as the objective, formulate an aggregate planning optimization model for Skycell.

b) Use Excel Solver to find the optimal solution. Submit your Excel file.

### c) Report the optimal solution and the minimum cost. 供应链分析代写

d) Management is interested in knowing if it would be worthwhile to negotiate an increase of allowed overtime per employee per month from 20 hours to 40 hours. Make a copy of your model from part a), then modify it.

e) Complete parts b and c using your model from part d.

f) Should management negotiate an increase of allowed overtime per employee per month up to 40 hours? What is the difference in cost? How much less/more overtime is used?